Source:  Ginnie Mae Securities

Daily Real Estate News | May 28, 2010

Mortgage Rates Might Not Be Low for Long

The near-record low mortgage rates seen during the past few weeks may not be around much longer.

Signs of improving economic conditions could lead Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to raise key interest rates, driving up mortgage rates, says Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC.

The evidence includes more consumers are paying their bills on time. Past-due accounts at American Express declined 34 percent compared to a year ago, and Target Corp. reported its lowest delinquency rate in two years during the second quarter.

In another sign of economic improvement, fewer banks reported tightening lending standards this month, one reason consumer borrowing rose for the second time in three months.

“If lending standards start to stabilize, that’ll be another reason to remove the emergency measures, including the zero rate,” says Jay Bryson, a senior global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, N.C., who formerly worked at the Fed in Washington.

Source: Bloomberg, Bob Willis and Anthony Feld (05/28/2010)

Every time a major manufacturer considers making a move within the US, there are 15,000 Economic Development Directors sealing large envelopes containing a packet filled with lovely and inviting brochures hoping to win jobs through private investment.

Boeing’s expansion announcement for Charleston is the national coup of the year for the Lowcountry.

We don’t know if there were 15,000 involved in the recent site review by Boeing, but we have to believe the competition was fierce.   The winner was the Charleston area, North Charleston to be exact.  The loser was Seattle, Boeing’s hometown for decades.

Boeing plans to break ground on a 584,000 square foot expansion near its existing North Charleston factory within the next few weeks.   They’ll begin rolling 787 Dreamliners out of Charleston in 2011.  The 787 is Boeing’s first new jet in more than a decade.

Boeing’s $450 million investment will produce at least 3,800 jobs.

The announcement is massively positive news for a state currently suffering one of the country’s highest unemployment rates and still reeling from recent political embarrassments.

Gooden + Faircloth welcomes Boeing and predicts everyone associated with the company moving into the area will love Charleston as much as we do.

Edward Faircloth | Mt Pleasant, SC

I hear these statements every single day;  “I can’t find a job”, “I can’t pay my bills”, “Can you help my child find a job”, “The phones aren’t ringing”.

There are plenty of people fortunate to have salaried positions, reasonably well isolated from the financial struggling so common for so many of our neighbors and their businesses.   I personally see a great deal of struggling among my middle-class neighbors and friends.

A couple of thoughts for this period:

1)  Think positively.  There is going to be an end to this recession.  There is.

2)  Be kinder, gentler and more supportive to others.  Most are having problems.  Share a smile.

3)   Shop locally.  Avoid online purchases during this period.  Money spent locally circulates locally.

4)   Use this period to push yourself out of your same traditional line of personal and professional thinking.  Get out of your box.  Decide this downturn is going to have proven beneficial to you and your career.

Niels Bohr, the Nobel Prize-winning Danish physicist:  “Every great and deep difficulty bears in itself its own solution.  It forces us to change our thinking in order to find it.”

Reprinted from Charlotte Observer August 22, 2009

Charlotte-area home prices continued a slow creep upward in June, according to a closely watched index released this morning.

Area sales prices remain in negative territory compared with a year ago, but rose .7 percent from May to June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. While that was down slightly from the previous month’s uptick, it was the third monthly gain in four months and further evidence prices are stabilizing.

The increase comes as the broader index of 20 metropolitan areas also has been improving.

“For the second month in a row, we’re seeing some positive signs,” said David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee, adding “there are hints of an upward turn from a bottom.”

Home prices and sales remain well off their highs, locally and nationwide, but today’s Case-Shiller reading adds to a growing list of small improvements.

The index is especially meaningful because it tracks repeat sales of existing houses, the most precise broad measure of how home values are adding up. Charlotte’s run of rising values outlasted the 19 other markets for a long time. But in April 2008, the region turned to losses. This March, Charlotte saw a tiny gain, followed by an April decline and now two consecutive months of gains.

Charlotte’s prices compared with a year ago also improved, moving out of double digit losses, to a 9.6 percent decline. That remained the fifth smallest decline of the group.

Compared with a year ago, all 20 of the index’s markets remain down. But 18 areas had positively monthly gains in June, up from 13 in May. Phoenix, long the most depressed market, saw a monthly gain. Las Vegas registered the biggest monthly loss, which pushed it into last place, with prices down 32.4 percent from a year ago.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Sales of existing homes rose in July for the fourth consecutive month, lending support to economists who argue a recovery is near.

Sales of previously owned single-family homes were up 7.2% compared with June and 5% from July 2008, The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Friday. The monthly gain was the largest on record for existing-home sales, which NAR has tracked since 1999.

“The housing market has decisively turned for the better,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales.”

July home sales hit an annualized rate of 5.24 million proprieties, marking the first breach of the 5 million annualized rate mark since last September, when they hit 5.1 million. Since then, they have stayed in a very narrow range, bouncing between between January’s low of 4.49 million and October’s high of 4.94 million.

The July performance far exceeded expectations: A consensus of real estate experts had forecast sales of 5 million.

Some Good News on Housing
By Paul Weinstein Jr.

One area where the stimulus is having a positive impact is in the housing sector. A spate of new data indicates that the housing market may have turned the corner. First, today it was announced that the value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to a 20-city index released by Standard & Poor’s and economists Case-Shiller. Second, new home sales rose in June at the fastest clip in more than eight years as buyers eagerly took advantage of bargain prices. Sales have now risen for three months in a row. Finally, the construction of new homes is at the busiest level since last fall. Why is the housing recovery so important? Because as we stated in “Moving Houses: How Sparking a Housing Recovery Is the Key to America’s Economic Recovery,” an analysis of the nation’s economic history reveals that the housing market’s resurgence has led a wider turnaround in five of the last seven recessions. So give some credit to the Obama Administration’s and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to create incentives to buy homes, keep interest rates low, and help families avoid foreclosures. However, although the news is getting better, now is not the time to rest on our laurels. In that vein, we recommend that Congress quickly send President Obama a bill expanding the current $8000 first-time buyers’ tax credit to all homebuyers, to encourage existing homeowners, as well as those dipping their toes into homeownership for the first time, to invest in a new primary residence. Getting everyday homeowners buying again could lighten the load on the rest of the economy and mean more orders for manufacturers and help create jobs for construction workers, electricians, plumbers, and others. And that would leave Washington more room to focus its attention on more drastic, if not pressing, challenges elsewhere.

First things first as I sit down to a stack of To Do’s on my desk on this sunny Charleston morning.

58 years ago, a baby girl was born 3 months after me in the exact same hospital room in Clinton, NC.    The hospital had only one delivery room.  It’s quite possible that she was even born on the same hospital bed as me.   Through our child and teen years, she and I remained close friends, even puppy lovers from time to time.   She went off to the University of North Carolina.  I went off to Vietnam.  Our paths didn’t cross again for 38 years.

A few years ago, I called her one evening while driving from NC to Florida.   We talked through 3 states.  Something special was still there.

2 years later, we are now real estate business partners and, in many ways, life partners.   The textures and depths of the history born in that hospital room 58 years earlier remains intertwined and richly meaningful.

Rebecca Warren Gooden is loved, appreciated and respected by all, including her business partner.

This week her Rotary Club of Mt Pleasant acknowledged their respect by giving her their Annual Presidential Citation.   She is Rotarian of the year.  Rotary’s motto is Service Above Self.   The club surely selected an exceptionally dedicated service oriented giver this year.   Rebecca is always there for anyone who needs a helping hand or a warm heart.  Always.

She’s a busy and successful entrepreneur who owns a residential real estate business (Gooden+Faircloth), a real estate investment business, a NC golf course and a top-ranked Mt Pleasant Restaurant (Crave Kitchen & Cocktails).  She’s a member of more professional organizations than I can keep up with.

Congratulations and thank you Rebecca.   You are loved, appreciated and deeply respected.

According to the National Association of Realtors,  pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose by 6.7 percent in April, the biggest monthly gain in 7-1/2 years, reinforcing evidence the U.S. recession is beginning to ease and the battered US housing sector is stabilizing.

“We’re delighted to see these positive figures,” said Gooden + Faircloth partner Rebecca Gooden.   “They’re actually in perfect synch with what our company has experienced since January.”

According to Reuters News Service, the downturn in the U.S. housing market touched off a global credit crisis that sent economies worldwide tumbling into recession. Now, signs are emerging that the global economy is beginning to heal.

Lawrence Yun, senior economist at NAR, credits improved home affordability and the government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers for the surge in U.S. buying activity.

Says Gooden of Gooden + Faircloth, “all of our buyers in the first half of ‘09 have been first-timers.   In fact, it is the market segment we’ve focused heavily on. The $8,000 Tax Credit has been a major draw of activity into the market.   We’d still like to see the credit expanded to all buyers, not just first-timers.  Housing is historically affordable right now.”

The NAR said its Housing Affordability Index, which blends factors like home prices and mortgage rates, was “in record territory” with 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 5 percent and an abundance of homes on the market

.

Added Edward Faircloth, ” a recovery in the housing sector has been responsible for bringing the country out of 5 of the past 7 recessions.  It only makes sense that healing the housing industry should be a primary focus for the federal government stimulus programs.”

“Almost everyone,” says Faircloth, “agrees that a housing recovery is critical for a broader economic uptick, mainly because it was housing which kick started the recession.”

Note:  Gooden+Faircloth has been informed by National Association of Realtors representatives the plan described below is likely to become reality within the next few weeks.   Both Congressman Henry Brown and Senator Lindsey Graham support the plan.

The Democratic Leadership Council was formed during the Bill Clinton presidential years.   It is known for its moderate positions, positions which often mirror classic moderate Republican positions.

The DLC has recently released a report which it believes contains the key to reinvigorating the American economy.  Gooden + Faircloth agrees.

According to the DLC, reticence among many potential home buyers to move into the market is preventing recovery. Few doubt that the housing bubble’s implosion drove the nation into its current recession. The authors suggest that an upswing in the housing market could also play a crucial role in turning the broader economy around.

Newly-installed DLC CEO Bruce Reed commented: “The housing market helped start this economic crisis. Getting homes moving again is crucial to speed the nations recovery.”

The Report, titled Moving Houses: How Sparking a Housing Recovery Is The Key To America’s Economic Recovery, makes several recommendations, including:

• Expand the $8,000 Homebuyer Tax Credit to individual and family homeowners looking to move or buy a new home, regardless of whether they previously owned another. This expansion is estimated to cost $11.4 billion;
• Limit the credit by ensuring it expires at the end of the year, forcing those intent on taking advantage of the credit to get into the market in the short term; and
• Ensure that homeowners have access to the credit at closing by directing the Secretary of HUD and/or the Secretary of the Treasury to use existing authority (possibly through the Home Program or the Troubled Asset Relief Program) to set up a fund that would advance some of the down payment and closing costs.

Among the report’s key findings:

• The turning point in five of the last seven recessions has been marked by the moment housing sales began to swing up again.
• The housing sector was responsible for over 75 percent of all job growth from 2004 through 2007.
• In the past year alone, existing and new home sales have fallen by 13.1 percent and 37.6 percent, respectively.
• Nationally, sales of existing homes fell 10.3 percent in February from a year ago, and the U.S. median sales price slid almost 16 percent to $165,400.
• The housing sector makes up approximately 10 percent of the nation’s GDP.

To access the full report, click here.